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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2016-09-13 22:33:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 132033 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 2100 UTC TUE SEP 13 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 52.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 346 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 52.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 52.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 29.1N 53.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 140SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 53.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.5N 53.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...180NE 100SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.5N 50.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 48.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 50SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 58.0N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 64.5N 8.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 52.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-13 16:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Tue Sep 13 the center of IAN was located near 25.4, -52.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 5
2016-09-13 16:57:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 131456 CCA TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 CORRECTED HEADLINE ...IAN CONTINUES TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 52.3W ABOUT 895 MI...1435 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 52.3 West. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn toward the north and north-northeast at increasing forward speed is expected over the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tropical Storm IAN Graphics
2016-09-13 16:45:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 14:45:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 13 Sep 2016 14:43:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-09-13 16:44:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131444 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian remains a sheared tropical storm, with the low-cloud center exposed to the south of the main area of deep convection. The current intensity estimate remains 40 kt, since the system has not become better organized since the time of the last scatterometer pass. The strong shear over Ian is being produced by an upper-level low a couple of hundred miles to the west-northwest. The global models predict this low to open up into a negatively-tilted trough, with some slight relaxation of the shear over the storm, in 24-36 hours. Therefore slight strengthening is shown by the official forecast after 24 hours, in line with the latest model consensus. The global model guidance depicts the cyclone to become frontal over the north Atlantic by 96 hours, and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The tropical cyclone is moving north-northwestward at a slightly faster forward speed, or around 330/11 kt. Ian is expected to continue to move through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge over the next day or so. Then, an approaching trough in the westerlies should cause the cyclone to turn north-northeastward and accelerate. The official track forecast is a little faster than the previous one, but not as fast as the latest GFS and ECMWF model predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 25.4N 52.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 27.3N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 29.9N 53.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 32.6N 53.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 35.5N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 44.0N 42.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 54.0N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 18/1200Z 62.0N 13.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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