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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2016-09-14 10:35:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 140835 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm IAN (AT5/AL102016)
2016-09-14 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...IAN MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of IAN was located near 29.3, -53.0 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 8
2016-09-14 10:35:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 140835 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...IAN MOVING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 53.0W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 53.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the northeast with a significant increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 8
2016-09-14 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 140834 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 0900 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.0W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 53.0W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 52.9W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.3N 53.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 34.0N 52.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...170NE 130SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.2N 49.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.6N 43.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 150SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 53.4N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 100SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...210NE 300SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 53.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 7
2016-09-14 05:54:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140354 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 13 2016 Ian's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since this afternoon. The low-level center remains exposed to the south of a fan-shaped mass of deep convection. This structure is consistent with a deep-layer southwesterly vertical shear of nearly 40 kt associated with a mid- to upper-tropospheric cyclone to the west of the cyclone. A 0018Z ASCAT pass showed reliable surface winds near 45 kt well north of the center, which agrees with a TAFB satellite classifciation of T3.0. On this basis, the initial intensity is increased to 45 kt. The initial motion estimate has been nudged a little more to the right than earlier today and is now 345/11 kt. Ian should continue to move generally northward into a weakness in the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic during the next 24 hours or so. A significant acceleration toward the northeast should occur in about 36 hours when a shortwave trough moving through Atlantic Canada approaches Ian. The NHC track forecast is adjusted to the right of the previous one, especially after 24 hours, and is in agreement with the the latest track consensus aids. The SHIPS output indicates that the shear should decrease, beginning in about 12 hours, roughly around the time that Ian becomes co-located with the upper low to its west. The shear is forecast to reach a relative minimum 24 hours later while the flow aloft gradually becomes more diffluent. This baroclinic forcing is expected to result in some intensification while Ian remains over warm waters, though the cyclone could possess attributes of both a tropical and an extratropical cyclone. Extratropical transition is indicated in 2 to 3 days, with absorption by a larger extratropical storm system over the North Atlantic likely around 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast is about the same as the previous one and near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 27.6N 52.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.8N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 32.3N 53.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 35.2N 51.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 39.4N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 49.7N 33.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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