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Tropical Storm IAN Public Advisory Number 9

2016-09-14 16:50:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 141450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM IAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1100 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...IAN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.4N 53.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM E OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 53.0 West. Ian is moving toward the north near 20 mph (31 km/h). A northward motion at a slower forward speed is expected today and tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Ian is expected to lose its tropical characteristics on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm IAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2016-09-14 16:50:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 141450 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Advisory Number 9

2016-09-14 16:49:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 141449 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 1500 UTC WED SEP 14 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 53.0W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......200NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 53.0W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 53.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.7N 52.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...200NE 120SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.7N 51.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 160SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.2N 46.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 200SE 120SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 45.4N 39.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 0NW. 34 KT...240NE 270SE 180SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 53.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Tropical Storm IAN Forecast Discussion Number 8

2016-09-14 10:37:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140837 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM IAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102016 500 AM AST WED SEP 14 2016 The cloud pattern of Ian has changed little during the past several hours. The low-level center of the tropical storm is completely exposed and located more than 100 n mi south of the main area of deep convection. This poor structure is the result of about 30 kt of south-southwesterly vertical wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data and a Dvorak CI-number from TAFB. Ian is moving northward at about 13 kt, and is being steered by the southerly flow between a mid- to upper-level low to its west and a ridge to its east. A northward to north-northeastward motion at about the same forward speed is forecast during the next 24 hours as the steering pattern more or less persists. After that time, a shortwave trough is expected to move east of Atlantic Canada, and that should cause Ian to turn northeastward and sharply accelerate until the cyclone becomes absorbed by a large extratropical low in 3 to 4 days. The models are in good agreement, and the official forecast lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. The strong shear that has been affecting Ian since genesis is expected to let up some during the next 24 to 36 hours. The predicted lower shear, fairly warm water, and baroclinic forcing should allow Ian to strengthen a little during the next day or two. Beyond a couple of days, Ian is forecast to move over sharply cooler sea surface temperatures and into an environment of strong shear. These conditions should cause the cyclone to lose its tropical characteristics in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 31.3N 53.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 34.0N 52.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 37.2N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 41.6N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 53.4N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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