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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 5A

2017-10-28 13:42:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 281142 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 700 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...SELMA MAKES LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF SAN SALVADOR... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 88.9W ABOUT 20 MI...34 KM ESE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 88.9 West. Selma is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected through today. On the forecast track, Selma should quickly weaken and dissipate over Central America by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected through today with dissipation by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), primarily to the east and southeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, and southern Honduras through Sunday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash floods, especially in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring within the warning area. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the watch area early this morning. Winds should diminish by late morning in the warning and watch areas. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are affecting portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions today. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Storm Selma Graphics

2017-10-28 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 08:41:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 08:41:39 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)

2017-10-28 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SELMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Selma was located near 13.0, -88.8 with movement NNE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 5

2017-10-28 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280837 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 ...SELMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN A FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 88.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSE OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 88.8 West. Selma is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected during the next day. On the forecast track Selma should make landfall in El Salvador during the next few hours and dissipate over Central America by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is anticipated before landfall, with rapid weakening expected thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km), primarily to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala and southern Honduras through Sunday. This rainfall could cause isolated flash floods, especially in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions, primarily in gusts, are possible within the watch area by Saturday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are affecting portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

2017-10-28 10:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280837 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 0900 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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