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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 1A

2017-10-27 13:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271133 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 700 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...SELMA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...10.8N 89.6W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in southeastern Guatemala and western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 89.6 West. Selma is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and the cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Selma will approach the coast of El Salvador on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast over the next day or so before Selma makes landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Graphics

2017-10-27 10:55:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 08:55:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 08:55:21 GMT

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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-10-27 10:54:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 270854 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Satellite images indicate that deep convection has become more concentrated over the past several hours in the western semicircle of the low over the far eastern part of the eastern Pacific. Scatterometer data from overnight also indicate that the low has become well defined, with winds of about 35 kt. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Storm Selma. This is a rare location for a tropical storm to form in the eastern Pacific, and this is the only the second tropical storm to form on record east of 90W that didn't come from an Atlantic cyclone (the first was Alma 2008). A weak ridge of high pressure over southeastern Mexico is causing the storm to move slowly northwestward. However, this pattern is forecast to change quickly as the ridge breaks down due to a large mid-latitude trough dropping into the Gulf of Mexico during the next 24 hours. This pattern should steer Selma toward the north over the weekend, although the models are in rather poor agreement on exactly when that turn occurs. To complicate matters, there is also some chance of interaction with the Caribbean disturbance AL93, with the models showing the most interaction, such as the UKMET or ECMWF, having tracks on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. The GFS-based guidance shows little interaction and shows a track more toward Guatemala. The NHC forecast splits the difference between the model consensus and the ECMWF, and is just east of the latest NOAA-corrected consensus, necessitating a Tropical Storm Warning for El Salvador. This is a low confidence forecast due to the large spread in the guidance and a Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be required for portions of the coast of Guatemala later today. Selma has a day or so of very warm waters and light-to-moderate shear in its path. These conditions should promote strengthening, and the NHC intensity forecast is consistent with the bulk of the models. It should be emphasized, however, that the most significant hazard expected with Selma is heavy rainfall. Up to 10 inches of rain are possible over El Salvador and southern Guatemala, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 10.7N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 11.3N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 12.5N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 13.7N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-10-27 10:50:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 270850 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 0900 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P SAN JOSE 34 X 3( 3) 11(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 90W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 3( 3) 23(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)

2017-10-27 10:50:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SELMA HAS FORMED, TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR EL SALVADOR... As of 4:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Selma was located near 10.7, -89.5 with movement NW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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