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Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)

2017-10-27 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SELMA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR OR GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Selma was located near 11.7, -89.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Advisory Number 3

2017-10-27 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 272034 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SELMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 89.4W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 89.4W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.5N 89.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 13.6N 89.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 14.8N 89.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 89.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 3

2017-10-27 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272034 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...SELMA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR OR GUATEMALA ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 89.4W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 89.4 West. Selma is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and the cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Selma is forecast to make landfall along the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Selma reaches the coast of Central America. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall and Selma is expected to dissipate over the mountains of Central America Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

2017-10-27 22:34:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 272034 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 2100 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P SAN JOSE 34 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) SAN SALVADOR 34 2 22(24) 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PUERTO CUTUCO 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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