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Tropical Storm Selma Graphics
2017-10-28 01:51:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 23:51:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 21:30:25 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)
2017-10-28 01:48:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SELMA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR... As of 7:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Selma was located near 12.0, -89.3 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 3A
2017-10-28 01:48:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 272348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 700 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...SELMA HOLDING STEADY IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.0N 89.3W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 89.3 West. Selma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and that general motion is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Selma is forecast to make landfall along the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Selma reaches the coast of Central America. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall, and Selma is expected to dissipate over the mountains of Central America Saturday night or early Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are beginning to affect portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Selma Graphics
2017-10-27 22:40:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 20:40:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 20:40:26 GMT
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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-10-27 22:35:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 272035 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 400 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 The center of Selma became exposed shortly after the issuance of the previous advisory, however, deep convection has redeveloped near and just south of the center this afternoon. The system is feeling the affects of moderate northeasterly shear and does not appear to have strengthened. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 (30 kt), however, the initial intensity is maintained at 35 kt in agreement with the overnight ASCAT data. Unfortunately, the ASCAT satellites did not pass over the tropical cyclone today. Satellite and microwave fixes show that Selma has turned more poleward and is now moving north-northwestward or 345/6 kt. A large mid-latitude trough is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico tonight and Saturday which should cause Selma to turn northward later today or tonight. The 12Z track guidance has come into better agreement and brings Selma onshore in El Salvador or eastern Guatemala on Saturday, and little change was made to the previous NHC forecast track. Moderate to strong northeasterly shear is expected to remain over the tropical cyclone during the next 24 hours, and little overall change in strength is expected before landfall. Selma should rapidly weaken and dissipate over the mountains of Central America Saturday night or Sunday. It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 11.7N 89.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 12.5N 89.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 13.6N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 14.8N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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