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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-10-28 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 280235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Selma has not become any better organized during the past several hours. The center of the tropical storm is partially exposed between a small curved band to its southeast and weakening convection to the west. Recent microwave data confirmed that Selma is a compact system, and the associated tropical-storm-force winds are estimated to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center. The initial intensity is held at 35 kt, in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. Satellite fixes indicate that Selma has moved northward to north-northeastward during the past 6 to 12 hours, and the storm lies a little to the east of the previous NHC track prediction. A general northward motion is expected overnight, and that should bring the center of Selma near the coast of El Salvador by Saturday morning. The new NHC track forecast has shifted to the east based on the initial position and motion, and it lies close to the consensus models. Little change in strength is likely while Selma approaches the coast. Once the storm moves inland, rapid weakening is expected and the system will likely dissipate over the rugged terrain of Central America by Saturday night. The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with accumulations possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 12.3N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 13.4N 89.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 24H 29/0000Z 14.3N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2017-10-28 04:35:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 280235 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN SALVADOR 34 16 5(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) PUERTO CUTUCO 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) AMAPALA 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHOLUTECA 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)
2017-10-28 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SELMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Selma was located near 12.3, -89.0 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 4
2017-10-28 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 280235 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...SELMA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL BY EARLY SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.3N 89.0W ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 89.0 West. Selma is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h) and that general motion is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Selma is expected to make landfall along the coast of El Salvador Saturday morning. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Selma reaches the coast. Rapid weakening is forecast after landfall, and Selma is expected to dissipate over the mountains of Central America by Saturday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua through Sunday. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area overnight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are affecting portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Advisory Number 4
2017-10-28 04:35:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 280235 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 0300 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ENTIRE COAST OF EL SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PACIFIC COAST OF GUATEMALA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN WESTERN HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SELMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.0W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 75SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 89.0W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 89.1W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 13.4N 89.1W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 14.3N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 89.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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