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Post-Tropical Cyclone Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2017-10-28 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 282031 PWSEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 2100 UTC SAT OCT 28 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Selma (EP5/EP202017)
2017-10-28 22:31:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SELMA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Selma was located near 14.3, -88.8 with movement NNE at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Selma Graphics
2017-10-28 16:50:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 14:50:01 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 Oct 2017 14:50:01 GMT
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selma
Tropical Depression Selma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-10-28 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 281443 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Selma Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 2017 The surface circulation center of Selma continues to move inland over San Salvador since making landfall just a couple of hours ago. Conventional imagery, radar data, and surface observations indicate that Selma has weakened during the past few hours and the initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Further weakening is forecast today, and Selma should quickly dissipate over the Sierra Madre Mountains tonight. Selma should turn northeastward soon and continue on this general motion until dissipation tonight, and the global models remain in agreement in this forecast philosophy. The primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall with 2 to 5 inches that could cause flash floods in higher terrain over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. Gusty winds to tropical-storm-force are also possible today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 13.7N 88.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/0000Z 14.4N 87.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 24H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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discussion
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depression
Summary for Tropical Depression Selma (EP5/EP202017)
2017-10-28 16:43:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...SELMA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLASH FLOODS THROUGH SUNDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TODAY... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Oct 28 the center of Selma was located near 13.7, -88.5 with movement NE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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selma