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Summary for Tropical Storm Selma (EP5/EP202017)

2017-10-27 19:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SELMA TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 1:00 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 the center of Selma was located near 11.4, -89.5 with movement NNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm Selma Public Advisory Number 2A

2017-10-27 19:36:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 271736 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Selma Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 100 PM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 ...SELMA TURNS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.4N 89.5W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Entire coast of El Salvador A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Pacific coast of Guatemala A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Interests in western Honduras should monitor the progress of Selma. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Selma was located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Selma is moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and the cyclone is expected to turn toward the north by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Selma will approach the coast of El Salvador or Guatemala on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is forecast before Selma reaches the coast of Central America. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Selma is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches over El Salvador, southern Guatemala, southern Honduras and far western Nicaragua over the next couple of days. Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are possible in El Salvador and southern Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by early Saturday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Selma are forecast to affect portions of the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and Guatemala later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Graphics

2017-10-27 16:43:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 14:43:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 27 Oct 2017 15:26:23 GMT

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Tropical Storm Selma Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-10-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 271438 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Selma Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202017 1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 27 2017 Selma is a sheared tropical cyclone. Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave imagery show that the center is located near the northeastern edge of a small, but persistent cluster of deep convection. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates are still below tropical storm strength, but the initial intensity remains at 35 kt, in agreement with the earlier scatterometer data. Recent satellite and microwave fixes indicate that Selma is moving northwestward at about 4 kt. A weak ridge to the north of the tropical cyclone is forecast to weaken today as a large mid-latitude trough moves into the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should cause Selma to turn northward toward the Pacific coast of Central America tonight and early Saturday. However, there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the sharpness of the turn. The UKMET shows an immediate northward or northeastward motion and is along the right side of the guidance envelope. On the opposite side of the envelope are the GFS, HWRF, and HMON, which depict a longer north- northwestward motion and bring Selma inland near western Guatemala. The NHC forecast is closest to the ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models, which are a little to the right of the multi-model consensus. Given the large uncertainty in the track forecast, the government of Guatemala has issued a tropical storm watch for the entire Pacific coast of Guatemala. The shear over Selma appears to be a little stronger than initially expected, and the SHIPS guidance does not show any decrease in this shear during the next day or so. As a result, only slight strengthening is indicted before landfall, and the NHC forecast is close to the various consensus models. Since the system is small, it is expected to weaken and dissipate very quickly after it moves inland over the high terrain of Central America. It should be noted that the primary threat associated with Selma is heavy rainfall, with totals possibly as high as 10 inches over portions of El Salvador and Guatemala. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 11.1N 89.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 11.8N 89.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 13.0N 90.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 14.2N 89.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Selma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2017-10-27 16:38:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 271438 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM SELMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202017 1500 UTC FRI OCT 27 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SELMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P SAN JOSE 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) P SAN JOSE 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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