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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-23 16:51:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 14:51:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 23 Oct 2020 15:24:46 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2020-10-23 16:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 231449 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 23 the center of Epsilon was located near 34.1, -61.6 with movement N at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 19
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 231449 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...EPSILON MOVING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.1N 61.6W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 61.6 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A general northward motion with increasing forward speed is expected through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday. Epsilon remains a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 19
2020-10-23 16:49:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 231449 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 70SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT.......220NE 220SE 120SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 61.6W AT 23/1500Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...230NE 220SE 150SW 190NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 100SE 90SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 250SE 180SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 40NW. 34 KT...250NE 270SE 250SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 160SE 130SW 50NW. 34 KT...270NE 360SE 340SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 120SE 150SW 60NW. 34 KT...290NE 390SE 410SW 340NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 100SE 150SW 100NW. 34 KT...320NE 390SE 570SW 450NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 61.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
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