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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-23 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 23 the center of Epsilon was located near 35.5, -61.7 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 968 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 20
2020-10-23 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 232050 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 PM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 ...EPSILON FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.5N 61.7W ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM NE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 35.5 North, longitude 61.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A general northward motion is expected to continue through early Saturday, with a very fast forward motion toward the northeast anticipated early next week. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in strength could occur for the next day or so before gradual weakening begins on Sunday. Epsilon could lose tropical characteristics late Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb (28.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake/Papin
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-10-23 22:50:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 232050 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 24(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BERMUDA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-10-23 22:50:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 232050 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 2100 UTC FRI OCT 23 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT.......150NE 70SE 50SW 150NW. 34 KT.......240NE 240SE 120SW 240NW. 12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 360SW 480NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 61.7W AT 23/2100Z AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 37.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT...110NE 90SE 80SW 130NW. 34 KT...260NE 260SE 160SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 38.9N 59.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 20NW. 50 KT... 80NE 130SE 120SW 70NW. 34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 41.9N 53.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. 50 KT... 80NE 160SE 120SW 20NW. 34 KT...240NE 300SE 280SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 45.6N 45.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW. 34 KT...240NE 370SE 330SW 260NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW 90NW. 34 KT...270NE 410SE 420SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 54.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 90SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...260NE 410SE 540SW 540NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.5N 61.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/PAPIN
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 19
2020-10-23 16:56:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 231456 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Fri Oct 23 2020 Epsilon's structure has not changed appreciably in the last 12 hours, with a small eye intermittently appearing in geostationary satellite and polar-orbiting microwave imagery with additional well-defined curved outer bands. The initial intensity is kept at 75 kt based on SAB and TAFB satellite estimates and the satellite trends. The cyclone continues to move to the north but at a slightly faster speed (360/09 kt). This northward track is expected for the next day or so as the hurricane is primarily steered by a deep-layer ridge located to its east. Thereafter, Epsilon is forecast to turn toward the northeast and accelerate due to strong mid-latitude westerlies ahead of an approaching longwave trough. By 60 h, Epsilon will be moving rapidly over cooler waters and is expected to be completing extratropical transition. The latest NHC official track is very similar to the previous one and is near the corrected-consensus models. Epsilon remains in a low vertical wind shear environment and will actually be moving over slightly warmer waters over the next day as it passes across a warm Gulf Stream eddy. It is unclear, however, that the current storm structure would allow for any strengthening. Thus, the official forecast maintains the current intensity for the next 36 h, and it is likely that inner-core processes will dictate any short-term fluctuations in intensity. After 36 h, slow weakening should begin as southwesterly vertical wind shear gradually increases and Epsilon reaches the north edge of the Gulf Stream. However, the system is likely to merge with another mid-latitude cyclone and become a powerful extratropical low at the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast closely mirrors the previous one and the latest global model wind speed consensus forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 34.1N 61.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 35.6N 61.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 37.5N 60.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 40.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 43.7N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 48.1N 39.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 26/1200Z 52.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Blake
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