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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-20 16:59:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 14:59:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 20 Sep 2020 15:25:35 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-09-20 16:55:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 201455 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The satellite signature of Teddy has degraded from an eye pattern overnight into a central dense overcast this morning. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the hurricane has weakened, and the initial wind speed is set to 90 kt, perhaps generously. The aircraft data does still show that Teddy remains a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending outward in the northeastward quadrant to about 70 n mi. While the forecast intensity does not change much over the next couple of days, the hurricane should undergo significant changes during that time. Teddy should not lose any more strength by late today due to favorable positioning with an approaching trough, and the gale-force winds should greatly expand due to this trough interaction. In 2 or 3 days, after the system occludes and becomes post-tropical, the cyclone should weaken because of a loss of extratropical forcing while over the cooler water south of Nova Scotia. Eventually Teddy will probably get absorbed by a larger extratropical low around day 5. Model guidance is fairly tightly packed around the official wind forecast, which leans on the global models given the substantial extratropical contributions, plus or minus 5 kt throughout the forecast period. The hurricane has resumed a northwestward motion or 320/8 kt. Teddy is likely to turn northward today and north-northeastward tomorrow due to the aforementioned trough. By early Tuesday, the cyclone should turn back to the north-northwest as it rotates around the same trough, then turn northeastward early Wednesday ahead of yet another trough moving into from eastern Canada. Although the forecast evolution is complex, model guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and no substantial changes were made to the previous forecast. Regardless of the details, every model has a rather large and strong post-tropical cyclone south of Nova Scotia in about 3 days. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 28.3N 62.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 29.2N 63.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 31.0N 62.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 34.8N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 38.8N 63.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 41.7N 63.4W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/1200Z 53.0N 53.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/1200Z 60.5N 39.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT... ...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 28.3, -62.8 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 964 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 201451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY RESUMES A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION, TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON BERMUDA STARTING TONIGHT... ...RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.3N 62.8W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. Interests in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 62.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda tonight, and the center should pass east of the island Monday morning. Teddy should be approaching Nova Scotia on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday, then become a strong post-tropical cyclone on Tuesday. Teddy remains a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda tonight and could continue into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-09-20 16:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 201451 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) X(30) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) X(40) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 27(44) X(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) X(16) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 14(50) X(50) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) X(18) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 20(56) X(56) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) X(19) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 49(53) 6(59) X(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 54(56) 4(60) X(60) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 2(28) X(28) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 1(36) X(36) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 3(21) X(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 14 38(52) 14(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) BERMUDA 50 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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