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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-09-20 10:50:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 200850 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 The convective structure of Teddy has degraded substantially since the last advisory, with no sign of an eye in conventional satellite imagery. The most recent available microwave imagery from last night suggested that Teddy still had a very well defined low to mid-level inner-core, but this has not translated to the higher levels more apparent at night. Intensity estimates have decreased, so the initial intensity has been lowered slightly to 100 kt for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later this morning and should provide more information about its structure and strength. Teddy's evolution for the next few days appears to be a tale of 3 troughs. Upper-level westerly flow associated with the first upper-level trough, affecting the storm now, is the most likely reason why the hurricane's structure has degraded and has taken on a slightly sheared appearance. Teddy will begin to encounter the 2nd trough, a deep frontal system approaching from the west, later today and that should cause the hurricane to turn north. This interaction should steer the center of Teddy east of Bermuda, but tropical storm impacts from either the large hurricane, the frontal system, or both are still likely Sunday evening through Monday night. All indications are that Teddy will then continue generally northward and merge with the frontal system, nearing Nova Scotia as an extratropical cyclone early Wednesday. Teddy's maximum winds will likely decrease sharply after it becomes post-tropical, as shown by all the intensity guidance, but its gale and storm-force wind radii will likely increase at the same time. The cyclone should turn northeastward as the 3rd trough, another mid-latitude system, approaches from the west. Teddy could be absorbed by that feature in as soon as 120 h, though this is not explicitly shown in the forecast at this time. The spread in the track and intensity guidance is quite low and confidence in both aspects of the forecast is high. There is a little more uncertainty in the wind radii evolution, but it is clear that Teddy will produce strong winds over a wide area of the northwest Atlantic during the next couple of days. The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy continues to increase. See the Key Message below regarding swells caused by the hurricane. Key Messages: 1. The center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are likely on the island beginning this evening and could continue into Monday evening. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 28.0N 62.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-20 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 20 the center of Teddy was located near 28.0, -62.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 958 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 32
2020-09-20 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 200846 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Sun Sep 20 2020 ...TEDDY FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY... ...SWELLS FROM TEDDY COULD GENERATE RIP CURRENTS ALONG WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES FOR SEVERAL DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 62.0W ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion will likely continue this morning. A turn toward the north is expected tonight and then Teddy is forecast to continue generally northward for another couple days. On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on Sunday night, and the center will pass east of the island Monday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next day or two, but Teddy is expected to remain a large and powerful hurricane through Monday. Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km). NOAA buoy 41049, located about 80 miles south-southwest of the center of Teddy recently reported sustained winds of 59 mph (95 km/h) and several gusts near 65 mph (105 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda as early as tonight and could linger into Monday night. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-09-20 10:46:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 200846 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 1(32) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 33(40) X(40) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 29(41) 1(42) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 18(44) X(44) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 26(52) X(52) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 9(56) X(56) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 6(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) 7(53) X(53) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 4(23) X(23) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 6 31(37) 22(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BERMUDA 50 X 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 32
2020-09-20 10:44:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 896 WTNT25 KNHC 200844 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC SUN SEP 20 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. 12 FT SEAS..510NE 330SE 420SW 450NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 62.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 61.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 28.9N 62.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 30.4N 62.9W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 190SE 180SW 230NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 33.3N 62.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 230SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 37.5N 62.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 130SW 150NW. 34 KT...365NE 300SE 270SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 40.9N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 34 KT...350NE 300SE 250SW 300NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 43.8N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 250SW 250NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 51.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 58.5N 41.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 62.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 20/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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