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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-09-14 16:55:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141454 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25 miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85 kt for this advisory. Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36 hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly clustered deterministic and regional model guidance. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-09-14 16:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 141454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTA CRUZ AZO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Hurricane Paulette Public Advisory Number 31
2020-09-14 16:53:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 141453 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.2N 64.8W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda in the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely as Paultette acclerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (170 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into the mid afternoon hours. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves into this afternoon. RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected. SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Sally Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-09-14 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 14:53:00 GMT
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Hurricane Sally Public Advisory Number 12
2020-09-14 16:51:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 141451 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sally Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020 1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020 ...SALLY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF ALABAMA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 86.9W ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from the Mississippi/Alabama Border to the Alabama/Florida Border has been changed to a Hurricane Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne * Mobile Bay A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida Border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida Border to Indian Pass Florida * Intracoastal City Louisiana to west of Morgan City A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River Florida A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Sally has reformed to the east of the previous estimated location. At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north- northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from the center. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Sally can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake Borgne...7-11 ft Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL Border...5-8 ft MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border including Mobile Bay...4-7 ft Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...4-6 ft Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft AL/FL Border to Chassahowitzka, FL including Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay, and Saint Andrew Bay...1-3 ft Burns Point, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...1-3 ft Overtopping of local levees outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System is possible where local inundation values may be higher than those shown above. The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today, and are expected to begin within the warning area later today. RAINFALL: Sally is expected to be a slow moving system as it approaches land, producing 8 to 16 inches of rainfall with isolated amounts of 24 inches over portions of the central Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle to far southeast Louisiana through the middle of the week. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely. In addition, this rainfall will likely lead to widespread minor to isolated major flooding on area rivers. Sally is forecast move farther inland early Wednesday and track into the Southeast with rainfall of 6 to 12 inches possible across portions of inland southeast Mississippi and Alabama. Significant flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as widespread minor to moderate flooding on some rivers. Further heavy rain is then anticipated across portions of eastern Tennessee, northern Georgia and western Carolinas Thursday into Friday. Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is possible across this region. Outer bands of Sally are expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the Florida peninsula today. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding and prolong high flows and ongoing minor flooding on rivers across central Florida. TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this afternoon through Tuesday over coastal areas of the Florida Panhandle, Mississippi, Alabama, and extreme southeastern Louisiana. SURF: Swells from Sally will continue to affect areas from the west coast of the Florida peninsula westward through the coast of southeastern Louisiana during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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