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Hurricane Sally Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

2020-09-14 12:12:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 10:12:52 GMT

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Oil Companies Idle Production as US Gulf Coast Braces for Hurricane Sally

2020-09-14 11:05:00| OGI

Since Sept. 12, energy companies began shutting offshore production as they evacuated workers in the path of the storm including Shell, Chevron, Murphy Oil and Equinor.

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Hurricane Paulette Graphics

2020-09-14 11:03:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:03:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 14 Sep 2020 09:03:52 GMT

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Hurricane Paulette Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30

2020-09-14 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 140851 PWSAT2 HURRICANE PAULETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020 0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PAULETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BERMUDA 64 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Hurricane Paulette Forecast Discussion Number 30

2020-09-14 10:51:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 005 WTNT42 KNHC 140851 TCDAT2 Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020 500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020 The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by surface observations from Bermuda. The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times. Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track. Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track. Key Messages: 1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon. 2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 32.3N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart

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