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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2016-08-20 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 200842 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 14

2016-08-20 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 200841 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 0900 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.7W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 46.7W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 46.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 48.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.1N 50.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 53.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 23.1N 56.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 25.0N 61.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 27.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-20 05:11:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 02:47:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 03:07:37 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 13

2016-08-20 04:47:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200246 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 PM AST FRI AUG 19 2016 A 2346 UTC ASCAT-B overpass helped to locate the center, which is beneath the cirrus canopy but along the southern edge of the deep convection. The scatterometer pass suggested that the maximum winds could be as high as 40 kt, but the highest vectors had questionable directions and were on the edge of the pass. Therefore, the intensity remains 35 kt, which is supported by subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Southwesterly vertical shear has increased to about 20 kt and is forecast to go up further during the next 48 hours or so. Given the increasing shear, a relatively dry middle troposphere, and Fiona's small size, the cyclone is expected to gradually degrade during the next few days. The intensity and global models either maintain Fiona's intensity or show weakening through the forecast period, and the ECMWF even opens the system up into a trough by day 3 or 4. Given that Fiona will likely struggle to maintain deep convection as environmental conditions worsen, the NHC forecast now shows the cyclone degenerating into a remnant low by day 3. Although a remnant low is carried through day 5, dissipation is possible before the end of the forecast period. The initial motion remains west-northwestward but a little faster at 295/10 kt. The track models are in good agreement on Fiona accelerating a bit along this heading during the next 48 hours, and no significant changes to the NHC forecast was required during that time. After 48 hours, however, the track forecast is highly contingent on Fiona's status as a tropical cyclone, a remnant low, or a trough. The ECMWF, which dissipates the cyclone, has a track well to the south and west of the other models, while the GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and Florida State Superensemble still show a northward turn by day 5. Regardless, the entire guidance envelope has shifted westward significantly after 48 hours. The NHC official forecast has been moved in that direction, but it still lies east of the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 18.7N 45.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 19.4N 47.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.5N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 21.6N 52.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 22.6N 54.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 24.6N 59.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0000Z 26.5N 62.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0000Z 29.0N 63.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-20 04:46:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A FEW DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 19 the center of FIONA was located near 18.7, -45.5 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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