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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 16

2016-08-20 22:32:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 202031 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 2100 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 49.1W AT 20/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 49.1W AT 20/2100Z AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 48.5W FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.1N 51.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.1N 53.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 24.1N 56.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.0N 58.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 27.0N 62.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.5N 65.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 49.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO

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Tropical Storm FIONA Graphics

2016-08-20 16:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 14:53:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Aug 2016 14:49:32 GMT

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 15

2016-08-20 16:52:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201451 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Fiona is fighting off southwesterly shear this morning as the center has become embedded under the southwestern side of an area of deep convection. The Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have held steady, so the initial intensity is held at 35 kt. Although a recent ASCAT overpass missed the center of Fiona, the pass did show 30-kt winds more than 50 n mi east of the center, suggesting that tropical-storm-force winds could be occurring closer to the center of circulation. Strong southwesterly shear of 25 to 30 kt is forecast to persist during the next few days. These unfavorable conditions combined with dry air along the path of the cyclone should induce a gradual weakening trend, and Fiona is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by tonight or early Sunday morning. The ECMWF and UKMET models continue to open this system into a trough within 3 days, whereas, the other model guidance lessens the shear slightly toward the end of the 5-day period and allows Fiona to survive for the next several days. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and leans toward the ECMWF and UKMET model solutions. The initial position of Fiona is located slightly to the north of the previous forecast track, based on recent microwave data. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving west-northwestward for the next several days. There remains a fair amount of spread in the guidance, which appears largely dependent on the future strength and status of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast lies on the western side of guidance, except for the short term forecast positions where a slight adjustment to the north was made due to the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 20.3N 47.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 21.2N 49.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 22.3N 52.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/1200Z 26.2N 61.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/1200Z 28.2N 63.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto

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Tropical Storm FIONA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2016-08-20 16:49:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 201448 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FIONA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-20 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Aug 20 the center of FIONA was located near 20.3, -47.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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