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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 15

2016-08-20 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 201448 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1100 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 ...FIONA HOLDING ITS STRENGTH FOR NOW... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 47.8W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 47.8 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or early Sunday, and it could degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Advisory Number 15

2016-08-20 16:48:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT21 KNHC 201448 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 1500 UTC SAT AUG 20 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 47.8W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 47.8W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 47.2W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 49.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.3N 52.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 23.3N 54.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 24.2N 57.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 26.2N 61.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N 63.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 47.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm FIONA Forecast Discussion Number 14

2016-08-20 10:43:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 200842 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 Fiona is looking ragged this morning with only a small area of deep convection on the northern side of the apparent center of the cyclone. Dvorak estimates are a bit lower than earlier, but I've elected to keep Fiona a tropical storm for this advisory given the earlier ASCAT data, perhaps generously. The cyclone is likely to gradually weaken for the next few days with strong shear, upper- level convergence, and dry mid-level air in its path. After considering the unfavorable environment ahead, the NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, and now shows Fiona as a remnant low in 48 hours and dissipating by day 5. This forecast could be conservative since the ECMWF and UKMET now open up this system into a trough within 3 days. The initial motion estimate is about the same as before, 295/11, mostly based on extrapolation. A subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic should keep Fiona moving west-northwestward for the next few days. The long-range track forecast remains highly contingent on Fiona's status as a tropical cyclone, a remnant low, or a trough. A deeper cyclone would likely take a more northern turn at the end of the period due to a mid-level trough, while a weaker cyclone would probably just continue moving to the west-northwest (and not feel the trough). Since the cyclone is now expected to be a more shallow system in a few days, it makes sense to be on the western side of the guidance envelope, which requires the new NHC track forecast to be shifted leftward beyond day 2. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 19.2N 46.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.0N 48.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 21.1N 50.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 22.1N 53.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.1N 56.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 23/0600Z 25.0N 61.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 24/0600Z 27.0N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

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Summary for Tropical Storm FIONA (AT1/AL062016)

2016-08-20 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...FIONA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 20 the center of FIONA was located near 19.2, -46.7 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Tropical Storm FIONA Public Advisory Number 14

2016-08-20 10:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 000 WTNT31 KNHC 200841 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FIONA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062016 500 AM AST SAT AUG 20 2016 ...FIONA EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 46.7W ABOUT 1000 MI...1610 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fiona was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 46.7 West. Fiona is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fiona is forecast to become a tropical depression later today, and could degenerate into a remnant low on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake

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