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Tropical Storm Cristina Graphics
2020-07-09 10:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 08:32:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 09 Jul 2020 09:24:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristina Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-07-09 10:31:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 090831 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt. Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model. The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-07-09 10:30:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 090830 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020 0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 8 24(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 1 9(10) 43(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 14(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 3( 3) 57(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 29(40) X(40) X(40) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) X(18) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristina (EP5/EP052020)
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... As of 3:00 AM MDT Thu Jul 9 the center of Cristina was located near 16.8, -109.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristina Public Advisory Number 11
2020-07-09 10:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 090830 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020 300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020 ...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 109.4W ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.4 West. Cristina is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well offshore of the coast of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Cristina could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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