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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2017-09-17 04:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 170249 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 9
2017-09-17 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170248 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 34.9W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 34.9W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 34.6W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.9N 36.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.1N 37.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.7N 39.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.4N 41.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 44.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 19.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 34.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics
2017-09-16 22:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 20:39:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 21:30:02 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 8
2017-09-16 22:35:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 162035 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Lee has changed little in organization since the last advisory, and the low-level center appears to be located along the northern edge of a persistent cluster of deep convection. Dvorak estimates have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 35 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Lee is moving westward, or 270/9 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it should maintain that trajectory for the next 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge should develop, but the weak nature of the cyclone should prevent it from turning too sharply toward the northwest. The updated NHC track forecast is relatively unchanged from the previous forecast, and it continues to lie south of the various consensus aids, closest to the HCCA model. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but continued north-northwesterly shear is likely to prevent significant intensification. Weakening is anticipated from 48 hours onward due to increasingly hostile shear, and Lee is likely to become a depression by day 3 and degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. The intensity models have come down a little on this cycle, and the NHC forecast is actually a little generous, staying close to the SHIPS model along the upper bound of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 12.6N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 12.6N 35.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 12.7N 36.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 13.2N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 13.9N 39.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 15.9N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.5N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 18.5N 51.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2017-09-16 22:34:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 162034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
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