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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 11
2017-09-17 16:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 171448 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 An 1144 UTC ASCAT pass indicated that Lee is no longer producing tropical-storm-force winds. In addition, deep convection is fizzling, and there are only a few convective elements remaining in a band to the south of the center. Lee is downgraded to a tropical depression with 30-kt winds, and even that could be generous given what the ASCAT data is showing. Since the cyclone is already struggling in its current environment, it probably won't do much better going forward since vertical shear is expected to increase to 30 kt in about 24 hours. Therefore, gradual weakening is expected, and Lee could degenerate into a remnant low by 48 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF both dissipate the low in 3 to 4 days, so the new NHC forecast now shows that occurring by day 4. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt. Even though the ridge to the north of the cyclone is not very strong, Lee's weak nature should cause it to be steered generally westward or west-northwestward for the next 3 days before it dissipates. The NHC track forecast remains just south of the various consensus aids, and it is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 13.0N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2017-09-17 16:47:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 171447 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-17 16:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Lee was located near 13.0, -36.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 11
2017-09-17 16:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 171446 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 36.7W ABOUT 875 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 36.7 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Lee could become a remnant low by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 11
2017-09-17 16:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 171446 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 1500 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.7W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 36.7W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 36.3W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 13.2N 37.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.8N 39.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 14.7N 41.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.7N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.5N 45.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 36.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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