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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics
2017-09-17 11:07:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:07:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 09:29:57 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 10
2017-09-17 10:53:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170852 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 Lee remains sheared this morning, with the center of circulation just beneath the northern edge of the cloud mass. Consequently, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt and agrees with the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is forecast to remain in an upper wind environment of strong west-northwesterly shear through the forecast period. The global and statistical models all show no intensification of Lee through 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual weakening trend through day 5. In fact, the GFS and ECMWF show dissipation in less than 4 days. Only the HWRF hurricane model indicates modest strengthening around the 48 hour period. The official forecast is similar to the previous package and reflects Lee degenerating into a remnant low in 4 days. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/6 kt. The cyclone is currently moving within the easterly mid-level flow produced by a subtropical ridge anchored to the north. This ridge is forecast to erode in 36 hours, allowing Lee to gradually turn west-northwestward and continue tracking in this fashion through 5 days. A slight adjustment to the right of the previous advisory was made to lie more closely to the HCCA technique and a blend of the ECMWF and GFS global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 13.0N 35.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-17 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Lee was located near 13.0, -35.4 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 10
2017-09-17 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170852 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE OPEN EASTERN ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.0N 35.4W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 35.4 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through Monday morning. A west-northwestward motion is expected Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Monday, and Lee is expected to weaken to a depression on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2017-09-17 10:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 170852 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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