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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 10
2017-09-17 10:52:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 170851 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0900 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.4W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 35.4W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 35.1W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 13.1N 36.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.4N 37.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 14.2N 39.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.0N 41.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 44.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 48.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 20.3N 52.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 35.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Tropical Storm Lee Graphics
2017-09-17 04:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 02:54:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 03:33:04 GMT
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Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-17 04:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170250 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Lee has a classic shear pattern appearance in satellite imagery this evening, with the center on the northern edge of a large convective burst due to the effects of 15-20 kt of northwesterly vertical shear. Two recent ASCAT overpasses indicate that the maximum winds are about 35 kt in the southern semicircle, with no winds of tropical-storm-force in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on the scatterometer data. The initial motion is 275/7. Lee is moving along the south side of a weak mid-level ridge. After about 24 h, the ridge is expected to weaken and allow Lee to turn west-northwestward, a motion that should continue through the forecast period. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and lies mainly between the ECMWF and the HFIP corrected consensus models. Lee is expected to encounter strong upper-level winds through the forecast period, with vertical shear values likely to exceed 30 kt after 48 h. While some short-term spin up due to convective bursts cannot be ruled out, overall the environment is not favorable for significant strengthening. Indeed, the intensity guidance calls for gradual weakening, and the GFS and ECMWF models forecast the cyclone to completely dissipate by 120 h. The new intensity forecast is weaker than the previous forecast and now calls for Lee to degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 12.8N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 12.9N 36.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 13.1N 37.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 13.7N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 14.4N 41.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 16.0N 44.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.5N 48.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/0000Z 19.0N 52.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-17 04:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE MOVING WESTWARD AND NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Lee was located near 12.8, -34.9 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 9
2017-09-17 04:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 170249 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...LEE MOVING WESTWARD AND NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 34.9W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 34.9 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is forecast to continue through Sunday afternoon. A west-northwestward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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