je.st

Home › lee

Tag: lee

Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

2017-09-16 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...LEE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Lee was located near 12.6, -34.2 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tags: summary lee storm tropical

Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 8

2017-09-16 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 162034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...LEE MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.6N 34.2W ABOUT 720 MI...1160 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was located near latitude 12.6 North, longitude 34.2 West. Lee is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Sunday. A west-northwestward motion is expected Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number public lee storm

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 8

2017-09-16 22:34:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 162034 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 34.2W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 34.2W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 33.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 12.6N 35.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 12.7N 36.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 13.2N 38.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 13.9N 39.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.9N 43.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 47.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 18.5N 51.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 34.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number lee storm advisory

Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 7

2017-09-16 16:59:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161459 CCA TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 7...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Corrected to include missing word in intensity discussion Deep convection has increased in intensity and coverage since this time yesterday, and a recent partial ASCAT pass from around 1100 UTC indicated that the system is now producing tropical-storm-force winds at least to the east of its center. Based on these data, the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Lee with maximum winds of 35 kt. Lee has been able to strengthen a little despite about 15 kt of north-northwesterly shear. The cyclone appears to be located in a sweet spot of relatively low shear, with much stronger upper- level westerly winds located not too far to the north, and it may be able to thread the needle of lower shear for another 36 hours or so. After that time, the westerlies drop southward, and Lee will likely be hammered by 30 kt of westerly shear by 48 hours. With all that in mind, Lee is forecast to strengthen only slightly over the next day or so, with weakening expected to begin by day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the intensity consensus and HCCA, and Lee may ultimately degenerate into a remnant low by day 5. Lee's initial motion is estimated to be 265/10 kt. The storm is located to the south of a weak mid-level ridge, and it is expected to move generally westward or west-northwestward for the entire forecast period. Although some of the track models are showing a more pronounced poleward motion, Lee's relatively low intensity and eventual weakening will likely keep it steered by lower-level flow. As a result, the NHC track forecast is near the southern edge of the guidance envelope, although not quite as far south as the ECMWF model. This forecast is not too different from the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 12.5N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 12.4N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 12.5N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 12.9N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 13.6N 38.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 15.6N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.0N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 18.0N 49.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion lee storm