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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-08-26 10:36:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 260836 TCMAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 180SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 71.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.1N 71.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 30.6N 71.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 80NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 70.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 35.0N 68.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 41.0N 55.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 200SE 100SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 48.0N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 57.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.0N 71.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-26 07:39:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 05:39:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 03:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Public Advisory Number 10A
2014-08-26 07:38:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 260538 TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE CRISTOBAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.5N 72.0W ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.0 WEST. CRISTOBAL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF CRISTOBAL WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY...AND PASS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF BERMUDA ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO ONGOING RAINFALL...CRISTOBAL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER BERMUDA. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Graphics
2014-08-26 05:11:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 02:44:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 03:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane CRISTOBAL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-08-26 04:43:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTNT44 KNHC 260243 TCDAT4 HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014 Based on a blend of SFMR, flight-level, and dropsonde wind data collected by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft a little earlier this evening, Cristobal was upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. Similar to Hurricane Bertha earlier this year in roughly the same location, this system's cloud pattern does not resemble that of a hurricane, with little or no evidence of banding on satellite images. Some additional strengthening is expected, however, since the SHIPS guidance shows a decrease in vertical shear during the next few days, and an increase in upper-level divergence is indicated by the global models. The official intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and is close to the latest LGEM guidance. The center fixes by the NOAA aircraft indicated an eastward wobble several hours ago, but recent satellite imagery hints that a slow north-northeastward motion has resumed. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 030/2 kt. In spite of the erratic motion and eastward shift of the center, the track model guidance remains in good agreement that Cristobal will move along a track similar to the previous NHC forecast. Over the next couple of days, the hurricane is expected to move through a weakness between two mid-level high pressure areas. Thereafter, as Cristobal begins to enter the mid-latitude westerlies and a shortwave trough moves off the northeast United States coastline, the tropical cyclone should accelerate northeastward into the North Atlantic. The current official forecast is not much different from the previous one, and close to the GFS ensemble mean solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 25.1N 71.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 26.9N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 29.3N 70.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 31.8N 70.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 34.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 39.0N 58.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 45.0N 45.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/0000Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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