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Tropical Depression ONE-E Graphics
2016-06-07 23:11:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 20:33:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 07 Jun 2016 21:05:11 GMT
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072032 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 Numerous very cold cloud tops from the tropical cyclone's deep convection are observed over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and southeastern Mexico, just north of the suspected center. No in-situ observations of the system's peak winds have been available, so an 18Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB is the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It again has been challenging to locate the center of the tropical depression. The visible satellite imagery was suggestive of a tight low-level center a couple of hours ago, before moving underneath the southern edge of the convective overcast. Also a 1610Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass in the eastern semicircle of the tropical cyclone was consistent with a closed surface circulation center being located in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The initial motion is an uncertain 50/5 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should further slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation is likely to prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation of the tropical cyclone within about a day, regardless of whether it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 15.5N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 15.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 16.0N 94.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Summary for Tropical Depression ONE-E (EP1/EP012016)
2016-06-07 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA AS DEPRESSION NEARS THE COAST... As of 4:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 the center of ONE-E was located near 15.5, -94.7 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072032 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 400 PM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA AS DEPRESSION NEARS THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.5N 94.7W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch from Puerto Escondido to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for... * Salina Cruz to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h). The system is expected to slow and turn toward the north today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the Mexican states of Oaxaca and Chiapas, and 2 to 4 inches over the Mexican states of Tabasco and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in Oaxaca and Chiapas. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2016-06-07 22:32:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072032 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 2100 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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