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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 20
2014-08-05 22:42:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 052042 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 70.3W AT 05/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.2N 70.3W AT 05/2100Z AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 71.2W FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 38.2N 67.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 41.0N 61.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.7N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 46.0N 49.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 180SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 48.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 51.0N 1.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.2N 70.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-05 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 AM EDT Tue Aug 5 the center of BERTHA was located near 34.8, -71.9 with movement NNE at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 19
2014-08-05 16:53:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 051453 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 ...BERTHA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.8N 71.9W ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WNW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.9 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H....AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE EAST. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY BERTHA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-05 16:35:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 14:35:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 05 Aug 2014 14:34:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-08-05 16:34:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 051433 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 AM EDT TUE AUG 05 2014 Increasing westerly vertical shear is displacing deep convection to the east of the low-level center of Bertha, which is clearly exposed in visible satellite images. The current intensity is adjusted down a bit in accordance with observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane a few hours ago. Since the shear is forecast to become even stronger over the next couple of days, additional weakening would be expected due to those conditions. However, the cyclone might be able to draw energy from baroclinic process associated with a frontal zone not far to its north, and maintain at least some of its intensity. The system is forecast to merge with that front and become an extratropical cyclone within 36 hours. It is also possible, however, that the shear will become so strong that Bertha would be reduced to a convection-free post-tropical cyclone before extratropical transition takes place. The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center has provided input to the official intensity forecast. Bertha continues moving north-northeastward near 19 kt. The tropical, or post-tropical, cyclone is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough near the United States east coast during the next couple of days. Thereafter, the system should move quickly east-northeastward to eastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the North Atlantic. The track forecast for 36 hours and beyond is also based on input from the Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 34.8N 71.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 37.1N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 39.8N 64.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 42.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 45.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 49.0N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 49.0N 22.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z 51.0N 2.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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