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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2014-08-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.2W AT 04/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 73.2W AT 04/0300Z AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 73.0W FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 27.3N 73.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 30.8N 73.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.9N 69.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.2N 59.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 47.5N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 49.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.9N 73.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-08-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 040241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 12(39) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 38(39) X(39) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) X(25) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 8(38) X(38) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-03 23:13:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 20:40:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 03 Aug 2014 21:07:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2014-08-03 22:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032041 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 After Bertha's cloud pattern became a little better organized earlier today, there has been little change in its overall appearance over the past several hours. There are limited banding features over the eastern semicircle of the circulation, and the deep convection is a little ragged-looking. The upper-level outflow is becoming a little better defined, but there is still some northwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity is kept at 40 kt based on earlier observations from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft. The numerical guidance has become a little less bullish on future strengthening, but the Decay-SHIPS model still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in 60-72 hours, as does the official forecast. It should be noted, however, that the intensity model consensus no longer predicts Bertha to become a hurricane. Based on an earlier center fix from the aircraft, the working best track has been adjusted a little to the east of the previous estimates. The center location is not obvious on the latest visible imagery, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 325/16 kt. The track forecast for the next 48 hours or so is slightly complicated by a low- to mid-level disturbance that is currently near Florida. The U.K. Met. Office global model forecast shows Bertha interacting with this disturbance and moving a little closer to the United States east coast than earlier runs. Other global models such as the GFS do not show as much interaction and keep Bertha farther offshore. The new official track forecast has been nudged a little to the left of the previous one and is very close to a consensus of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.3N 73.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 25.8N 73.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 29.0N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 32.6N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 35.7N 71.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 40.5N 63.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 46.0N 53.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2014-08-03 22:40:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 032040 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC SUN AUG 03 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 21(32) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 8(34) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 3(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 27(38) 1(39) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) X(13) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 7(15) X(15) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MAYAGUANA 34 15 X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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