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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-04 11:14:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 08:55:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 09:07:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-08-04 11:01:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 040900 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 5(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) X(36) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20) X(20) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 30(30) 1(31) X(31) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-04 11:00:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... As of 5:00 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 the center of BERTHA was located near 26.1, -73.6 with movement N at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 14
2014-08-04 11:00:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040859 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...BERTHA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.1N 73.6W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS TODAY AND PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE TUESDAY. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM FROM THE CENTER. DATA FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-04 10:57:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040857 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 AM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 Convection has been pulsing near the center, but the overall convective cloud pattern of Bertha has changed little since the previous advisory due to moderate northwesterly wind shear. Earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance wind data around 0500 UTC supported a 55-kt intensity, especially since the pressure had decreased 3 mb down to 1004 mb. However, a NOAA research aircraft has just started its investigation of the cyclone, and surface wind data support increasing the intensity to 60 kt along with a central pressure fall to about 999 mb. Bertha is now moving northward or 350/14 kt. There remains no significant change to the previous track forecast or reasoning. The latest NHC model guidance remains tightly clustered and in excellent agreement on Bertha continuing to move around the western periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a northeastward acceleration into the mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough and frontal system currently approaching the U.S. east coast. The official forecast track is just a tad to the left of the previous advisory, and is close to the consensus model TVCA. The 72-, 96-, and 120-hour positions are based on a blend of input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. On the forecast track, Bertha is expected to pass about midway between the U.S. coast and Bermuda on Tuesday. The northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been plaguing Bertha for the past few days is now decreasing and is gradually backing around to a southwesterly direction. In fact, the global models indicate that Bertha will move underneath a 200 mb ridge axis in 18-24 hours, at which time we should see the cyclone reach hurricane status. That intensity should be short-lived since the shear is forecast to increase to more than 30 kt by 48 hours and beyond, which should induce at least steady weakening. The intensity, however, has been held higher than normal due to Bertha's expected transition to an extratropical cyclone with possible baroclinic energy keeping the system fairly strong. Extratropical transition is expected by 72 hours, but it could occur sooner due to 50 kt or more of shear and SSTs around 20C by that time. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, remaining above the consensus models ICON and IVCN, and is close to a blend of the SHIPS and LGEM intensity models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 26.1N 73.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 28.6N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 31.9N 72.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 35.0N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 37.7N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 07/0600Z 43.4N 57.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0600Z 47.5N 47.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0600Z 49.5N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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