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Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory Number 17
2014-08-05 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 050239 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...BERTHA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.3N 73.1W ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...31 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2014-08-05 04:39:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 050239 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 39(39) 1(40) X(40) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 17
2014-08-05 04:39:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 050239 TCMAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 05 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 73.1W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 73.1W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 73.4W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 33.7N 71.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.6N 68.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 39.3N 64.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 42.1N 58.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 47.5N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 240SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 48.5N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 49.5N 15.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 73.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-04 23:14:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 20:43:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 21:07:48 GMT
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Hurricane BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-04 22:42:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 042042 TCDAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 Bertha continues to have a disorganized appearance on satellite imagery. A small burst of deep convection is occurring just east of the center, and the system continues to have well-defined upper-level outflow over the southeastern quadrant. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating the tropical cyclone, and we shall soon see if Bertha is maintaining hurricane status. Based on wind data from an Air Force mission earlier this afternoon, which showed a slight decrease, the current intensity is reduced to 65 kt. Flight-level wind data from that earlier mission also showed that the circulation had a very small extent over the northwestern quadrant, and high-resolution visible imagery shows low clouds moving northwestward, away from the center, not far from the center over that quadrant. This suggests that, if the environmental low-level flow increases, Bertha may have a difficult time maintaining a closed circulation. For now, the NHC intensity forecast calls for gradual weakening, and is a little below most of the guidance since the shear is predicted to become prohibitively strong, 50 kt or more, in just 36 hours. Fixes from the aircraft showed a gradual increase in forward speed and the initial motion is around 360/15. There are no important changes to the track forecast or reasoning. During the next couple of days, Bertha will be moving between a mid-level high pressure area over the southwestern Atlantic and a broad trough moving off the northeast United States coast. This should result in a gradual turn toward the north-northeast and northeast with additional acceleration during the next 24-48 hours. Later in the forecast period, Bertha or its post-tropical counterpart should accelerate east-northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies over the north Atlantic. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 29.4N 73.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 31.8N 72.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 34.7N 70.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 40.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 47.0N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/1800Z 49.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/1800Z 49.0N 24.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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