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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-08-04 10:52:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040852 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 0900 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 73.6W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......140NE 100SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 73.6W AT 04/0900Z AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 73.5W FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 28.6N 73.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 100SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 35.0N 70.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.7N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 43.4N 57.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 90SE 60SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 100SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 47.5N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 49.5N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.1N 73.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Graphics
2014-08-04 05:13:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 02:42:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 04 Aug 2014 03:07:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-08-04 04:45:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT43 KNHC 040245 TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 Recent satellite and aircraft reconnaissance data indicate that the circulation of Bertha has become much better defined this evening. The tropical cyclone has also quickly strengthened as convection has increased and become organized in a band around the eastern portion of the circulation. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft has measured peak believable SFMR winds of around 55 kt. Although the flight-level winds would support a little lower initial intensity, a recent dropsonde measured winds in the lowest 150 meters that also supports an initial wind speed of 55 kt. The aircraft data also indicate that the minimum pressure has fallen to around 1007 mb. The strong northwesterly vertical wind shear that has been affecting Bertha is forecast to decrease further during the next 24 hours. This should allow for additional strengthening, and the updated NHC intensity forecast calls for Bertha to become a hurricane in a day or so. In 36 to 48 hours, strong west-southwesterly upper-level winds are forecast to cause a significant increase in vertical shear. The shear, along with decreasing sea surface temperatures, should cause some weakening before Bertha becomes an extratropical low over the North Atlantic in three to four days. Bertha is moving north-northwest at 15 kt. The cyclone should turn northward and then north-northeastward during the next day or so while it moves between a subtropical high to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States. In a couple of days, Bertha is expected to accelerate northeastward and then turn east-northeastward when it moves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The model guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario through 72 hours, and the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory during that time. There is increasing spread in the track guidance after three days with the ECMWF and UKMET models predicting a much faster motion over the North Atlantic than the latest GFS. The four- and five-day forecast positions are close to the model consensus and guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 24.9N 73.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 27.3N 73.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 30.8N 73.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 34.1N 72.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 36.9N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 42.2N 59.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 47.5N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 49.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)
2014-08-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...BERTHA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 3 the center of BERTHA was located near 24.9, -73.2 with movement NNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm BERTHA Public Advisory Number 13
2014-08-04 04:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 03 2014 ...BERTHA QUICKLY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.9N 73.2W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT. DATA FROM A NOAA AND U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND BERTHA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES... 260 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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