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Hurricane BERTHA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16

2014-08-04 22:41:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 FONT13 KNHC 042041 PWSAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 16(49) X(49) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 1(33) X(33) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Summary for Hurricane BERTHA (AT3/AL032014)

2014-08-04 22:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...BERTHA CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... As of 5:00 PM EDT Mon Aug 4 the center of BERTHA was located near 29.4, -73.6 with movement N at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane BERTHA Public Advisory Number 16

2014-08-04 22:41:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT33 KNHC 042041 TCPAT3 BULLETIN HURRICANE BERTHA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 500 PM EDT MON AUG 04 2014 ...BERTHA CONTINUES NORTHWARD... ...NO THREAT TO LAND... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.4N 73.6W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERTHA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST. BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H...AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...BERTHA WILL PASS ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE U.S. EAST COAST AND BERMUDA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...OVER A SMALL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane BERTHA Forecast Advisory Number 16

2014-08-04 22:40:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 000 WTNT23 KNHC 042040 TCMAT3 HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014 2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.6W AT 04/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.6W AT 04/2100Z AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 73.6W FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 72.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.7N 70.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.0N 62.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 47.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 240SE 90SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 49.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 73.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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