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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2016-09-17 22:34:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 172034 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 2100 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression JULIA (AT1/AL112016)
2016-09-17 22:33:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JULIA STILL GENERATING ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 5:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 17 the center of JULIA was located near 30.5, -76.3 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression JULIA Graphics
2016-09-17 17:05:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 14:50:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 17 Sep 2016 15:05:34 GMT
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Tropical Depression JULIA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2016-09-17 16:49:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171449 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 17 2016 Convection has increased somewhat over the eastern quadrant of Julia, both in a cluster about 150 n mi east of the center and in thin bands closer to the center. This is just enough to keep the cyclone a tropical depression for this advisory. In the short term, the vertical wind shear is not favorable to sustain convection, and the cyclone should decay to a remnant low in 12 hours or less. The dynamical models forecast the shear to decrease after 36 hours, but it is likely that the remnant low will not be strong enough to take advantage of the more favorable environment. Thus, the intensity forecast continues to call for dissipation by 72 hours. The depression is currently nearly stationary. A low- to mid-level ridge north of Julia should move eastward into the Atlantic during the forecast period as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the eastern United States. The flow between these features should steer the cyclone or its remnants slowly northwestward and northward for the remainder of the system's life. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little east of, the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 30.2N 76.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 30.4N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1200Z 32.2N 77.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression JULIA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-09-17 16:48:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 000 FONT11 KNHC 171448 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016 1500 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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