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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 3
2016-06-20 10:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200849 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 ...RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 95.9W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 20.2 North, longitude 95.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast within portions of the warning area later this morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2016-06-20 10:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 200849 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 3
2016-06-20 10:49:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 200848 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0900 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 95.9W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 95.9W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 95.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.2N 96.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.0N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 95.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2016-06-20 07:51:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 05:51:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 03:03:33 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042016)
2016-06-20 07:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING TOWARD EASTERN MEXICO... ...LIKELY TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING... As of 1:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 the center of FOUR was located near 20.1, -95.7 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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