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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-07-06 22:35:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days, followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope. The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days. However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is expected to allow only slow intensification during that time. Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about 96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear environment. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR-E (EP4/EP042016)
2016-07-06 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 6 the center of FOUR-E was located near 12.2, -109.1 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Public Advisory Number 1
2016-07-06 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 062034 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.2N 109.1W ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E was located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 109.1 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-07-06 22:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 062034 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CLIPPERTON IS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FOUR-E Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-07-06 22:34:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 062033 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016 2100 UTC WED JUL 06 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 109.1W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 109.1W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 108.8W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 109.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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