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Summary for Tropical Depression DANIELLE (AT4/AL042016)

2016-06-21 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DANIELLE MOVING INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 the center of DANIELLE was located near 21.2, -97.8 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression DANIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 6

2016-06-21 04:32:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 210232 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0300 UTC TUE JUN 21 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 97.8W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 97.8W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 97.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.2N 98.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 97.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics

2016-06-20 11:06:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 08:52:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 09:03:37 GMT

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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-06-20 10:51:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200851 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 AM CDT MON JUN 20 2016 Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the tropical cyclone indicate that it has not strengthened, with no increase in flight-level winds and no significant fall in central pressure since the last mission on Sunday afternoon. Data from the aircraft show some elongation of the circulation from northwest to southeast, and this elongation was also suggested in a recent ASCAT overpass as well as in recent GFS model surface wind forecasts. Very cold cloud tops developed near the center, but the area of convection is rather shapeless with little evidence of banding features. The current intensity is held at 30 kt. There is now only a short time remaining for strengthening but since the shear has relaxed somewhat over the system, it could still become a tropical storm before reaching the coast. The official intensity forecast is slightly above the latest LGEM guidance. After landfall, weakening over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico is likely, and the system should dissipate on Tuesday. A slow westward motion, at around 280/6 kt, continues. The track forecast and its reasoning are the same as in the previous package. The cyclone is expected to continue to move generally westward to the south of a large mid-level high pressure area. The official forecast track is close to the latest dynamical model consensus. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with this system. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico over the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 20.2N 95.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 20.2N 96.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 21/0600Z 20.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042016)

2016-06-20 10:50:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...RAINS FROM THE DEPRESSION BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jun 20 the center of FOUR was located near 20.2, -95.9 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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