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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 2
2016-06-20 04:32:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 200232 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The depression has changed little in overall organization since the previous advisory. Deep convection that developed near the center during the late afternoon has waned this evening, while showers and thunderstorms over the far northern portion of the circulation continue to exhibit some loose banding structure. Recent buoy data and a satellite intensity estimate from TAFB still support an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that is scheduled to investigate the depression overnight should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity. The depression is moving westward at about 6 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone should move inland over Mexico within the next 12 to 24 hours while it continues to move westward to the south of a large mid- to upper-level high that is located over the south-central United States. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC forecast is near a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and UKMET models. Moderate southwesterly shear and the sprawling structure of the depression should prohibit significant strengthening before it reaches the coast of Mexico. However, some slight strengthening is possible, and the system is still forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or early Monday. Rapid weakening is expected once the center moves over the mountainous terrain of eastern Mexico, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Tuesday. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat associated with this system. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 20.1N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 20.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 20.4N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 21/1200Z 20.5N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2016-06-20 04:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 02:32:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 20 Jun 2016 02:31:32 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042016)
2016-06-20 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 the center of FOUR was located near 20.1, -95.4 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 2
2016-06-20 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 200231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 1000 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 95.4W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 95.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within portions of the warning area Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2016-06-20 04:32:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 200231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 0300 UTC MON JUN 20 2016 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 3 21(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) VERACRUZ MX 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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