je.st
news
Tag: depression
Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Number 1
2016-06-19 22:59:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192058 TCDAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 The low pressure system over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become sufficiently organized to be classified as a tropical depression, the fourth tropical cyclone of the 2016 Atlantic hurricane season. Although the thunderstorm activity was closer to the center of the cyclone earlier today, the convection is now a little better organized with some evidence of banding features on the north side. In addition, data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that the circulation is well defined and has maximum winds near 30 kt. This intensity is also supported by NOAA buoy 42055 which has been reporting winds around 30 kt most of the day. The depression is moving westward at about 7 kt to the south a mid-level high pressure system over the south-central United States. This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is predicted, taking the cyclone inland over eastern Mexico in about 24 hours, or perhaps sooner. The official NHC track forecast is close to the GFS and ECMWF models. The strong southwesterly wind shear currently affecting the depression is expected to lessen by tonight, which could allow for slight strengthening before the system begins to interact with land. Once inland, the cyclone is expected to quickly dissipate when it interacts with rugged terrain. Based on the forecast, the Government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast of Mexico within the state of Veracruz. The primary hazard associated with this system is expected to be heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico tonight through Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 19.9N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042016)
2016-06-19 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Jun 19 the center of FOUR was located near 19.9, -94.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
tropical depression
Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 1
2016-06-19 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 192056 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 400 PM CDT SUN JUN 19 2016 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.9N 94.7W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Laguna Verde to Rio Panuco Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was located near latitude 19.9 North, longitude 94.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move inland over eastern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or early Monday. The minimum central pressure recently reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible in higher terrain over the Mexican states of Veracruz, Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi, Queretaro, Hidalgo, and northern Puebla. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area Monday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2016-06-19 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 192056 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TAMPICO MX 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TUXPAN MX 34 1 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) VERACRUZ MX 34 8 5(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 1
2016-06-19 22:55:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 000 WTNT24 KNHC 192055 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042016 2100 UTC SUN JUN 19 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNA VERDE TO RIO PANUCO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.7W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 20.0N 95.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.3N 96.9W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.5N 98.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.9N 94.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
Tags: number
advisory
tropical
depression
Sites : [1144] [1145] [1146] [1147] [1148] [1149] [1150] [1151] [1152] [1153] [1154] [1155] [1156] [1157] [1158] [1159] [1160] [1161] [1162] [1163] next »