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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3A
2016-05-28 13:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 281150 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 800 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 78.0W ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 78.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone is just below tropical storm strength. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulfstream. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression TWO Graphics
2016-05-28 11:06:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 08:36:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 28 May 2016 09:03:33 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 280836 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 The depression has not become any better organized since yesterday. The convection is located to the northwest of the low-level center due to southeasterly shear, and it is also limited due to the fact that the cyclone has been moving over cooler waters. Dvorak T-numbers have not changed, and the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt based on continuity. The depression has a small opportunity to strengthen a little during the next 24 hours while it moves over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream, although the shear is not favorable for intensification. This is consistent with most of the intensity guidance, which do not show any notable increase of the winds. In between 24 and 36 hours, the circulation will be interacting with land, and weakening should begin. By 72 hours or sooner, the depression is forecast to become a remnant low. Although the low-level center is difficult to locate on satellite imagery, the best estimate of the initial motion is 310 degrees at 12 kt. The depression is currently located on the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge, and this pattern will continue to steer the cyclone on the same track for the next 24 to 36 hours. Thereafter, a short wave trough is forecast to approach from the west and force the cyclone to turn to the east-northeast at a very slow pace. The NHC forecast is an extrapolation of the previous one, and it follows the trend of the GFS and the ECMWF models very closely. The NHC forecast brings the center of the cyclone near the South Carolina coast between 24 and 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 29.9N 77.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 31.0N 78.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 32.4N 79.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 32.8N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/0600Z 33.0N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/0600Z 33.5N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION RIGHT ON TRACK BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sat May 28 the center of TWO was located near 29.9, -77.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 3
2016-05-28 10:36:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 280835 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 500 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION RIGHT ON TRACK BUT HAS NOT STRENGTHENED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.9N 77.0W ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SSE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 77.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A decrease in forward speed is expected today and Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area. Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane will investigate the depression this morning. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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