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Tropical Depression TWO Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-05-28 16:48:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 281447 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 Satellite and NOAA WSR-88D radar data indicate that deep convection has increased in the northern semicircle of the depression's circulation since the previous advisory. However, the depression remains a sheared tropical cyclone due to southeasterly upper-level winds of 20-25 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigated the cyclone this morning and obtained reliable SFMR surface winds of at least 30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates were also T2.0/30 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt for this advisory. Microwave satellite and recon fix positions indicate that the cyclone has made a jog toward the west-northwest during the past six hours. However, smoothing through these short-term wobbles yields a 12-hour motion of 310/11 kt. The ECMWF and GFS models actually did quite well in predicting this recent short-term wobble, and both models turn the depression more toward the right, accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed over the next 24 hours as the cyclone nears the South Carolina coast. As a result, the new NHC forecast track lies slightly to the left of the previous advisory track through 12 hours, primarily to account for the more westward initial position, and then is near the previous track and a blend of the GFS-ECMWF model consensus track at 24 hours and beyond. The depression is beginning to move over the eastern wall of the Gulf Stream where sea-surface temperatures are 27-28 deg C. Outer convective bands have also developed over the slightly cooler shelf waters between the South Carolina coast and the Gulf Stream, which implies that there might not be as much of a weakening effect by those cooler waters as previously anticipated. However, southerly vertical wind shear is forecast by the SHIPS model to increase to more than 20 kt before the cyclone reaches the coast, and that is expected to inhibit any significant strengthening. It is possible that the cyclone could peak at around 40 kt while it is over the Gulf Stream this afternoon and evening, followed by slight weakening just before it reaches the coast. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 30.3N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 31.3N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 32.4N 80.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 32.7N 80.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 30/1200Z 33.0N 79.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 31/1200Z 33.6N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1200Z 34.4N 76.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 34.9N 75.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression TWO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2016-05-28 16:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 000 FONT12 KNHC 281441 PWSAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1500 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 2(10) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 3(12) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) FAYETTEVILLE 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 1(16) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 2(15) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 3(13) 2(15) SURF CITY NC 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 2(17) 2(19) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 7(17) 2(19) 2(21) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 6(21) 2(23) 1(24) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 8(20) 3(23) 1(24) 1(25) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 1 5( 6) 6(12) 7(19) 1(20) 1(21) X(21) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LITTLE RIVER 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 10(19) 4(23) 2(25) 1(26) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 6( 7) 6(13) 10(23) 4(27) 1(28) 1(29) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GEORGETOWN SC 34 3 12(15) 6(21) 11(32) 3(35) 1(36) 1(37) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) CHARLESTON SC 34 4 23(27) 7(34) 6(40) 2(42) X(42) 1(43) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 4 25(29) 8(37) 3(40) 1(41) X(41) 1(42) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ATLANTA GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) AUGUSTA GA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17) SAVANNAH GA 34 3 17(20) 9(29) 3(32) X(32) X(32) 1(33) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 16:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... As of 11:00 AM EDT Sat May 28 the center of TWO was located near 30.3, -78.5 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression TWO Public Advisory Number 4
2016-05-28 16:41:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 281441 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016 1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016 ...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... ...OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACHING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.3N 78.5W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM S OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Savannah River to Little River Inlet South Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Two was estimated by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft to be near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 78.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion, accompanied by a decrease in forward speed, is expected later today and on Sunday as the system nears the coast within the warning area. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Recent data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the tropical cyclone remains just below tropical storm strength. However, the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today as it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area later tonight or early Sunday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from eastern South Carolina through southeastern North Carolina. STORM SURGE: Storm surge inundation of 1 to 2 feet above ground level is possible within the tropical storm warning area. SURF: This system is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along portions of the southeastern United States coast through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWO (AT2/AL022016)
2016-05-28 13:51:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sat May 28 the center of TWO was located near 30.0, -78.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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