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Tropical Depression KARINA Graphics
2014-08-26 05:15:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 02:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 26 Aug 2014 03:06:31 GMT
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 53
2014-08-26 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260233 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie continues to strongly shear Karina, though a persistent area of deep convection continues in the western quadrant of the cyclone. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a blend of satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low in about 12 hours, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in 24-36 hours. The initial motion is 095/4. A general east-southeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 17.2N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.9N 126.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 53
2014-08-26 04:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0300 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-26 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Aug 25 the center of KARINA was located near 17.2, -127.3 with movement E at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KARINA Public Advisory Number 53
2014-08-26 04:33:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 260233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 ...KARINA CONTINUES AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 127.3W ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. KARINA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY TUESDAY...AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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