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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 54
2014-08-26 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 260837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 Karina continues to produce sufficient organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone despite ongoing easterly vertical wind shear caused by the upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, in agreement with a partial ASCAT pass and satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Due to the ongoing shear, Karina is expected to degenerate into a remnant low soon, and then be absorbed into the much larger Marie in 24 hours or so. The initial motion is 100/3. The cyclone is embedded in westerly flow feeding into Marie, and a general east-southeastward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected until the cyclone is absorbed. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 54
2014-08-26 10:37:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 260837 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression KARINA (EP1/EP112014)
2014-08-26 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KARINA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 26 the center of KARINA was located near 17.0, -127.1 with movement E at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression KARINA Public Advisory Number 54
2014-08-26 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 260836 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 ...KARINA STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BE ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE BY TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 127.1W ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. KARINA SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT A FASTER RATE OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE DISSIPATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KARINA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY...AND THEN BE ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 54
2014-08-26 10:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 260836 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 54 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 0900 UTC TUE AUG 26 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.1W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 127.1W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 127.2W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.6N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY HURRICANE MARIE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 127.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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