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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 2A
2014-08-24 07:43:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240543 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 200 AM AST SUN AUG 24 2014 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 73.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM N OF MAYAGUANA ISLAND ABOUT 325 MI...520 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER TODAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND PASS NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATER TODAY AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2014-08-24 05:12:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 02:39:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Aug 2014 03:06:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression FOUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2014-08-24 04:41:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 FONT14 KNHC 240241 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 13(19) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 4(17) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) 3(20) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) 2(20) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 1(19) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11) 1(12) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 18(22) 11(33) 3(36) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 18(31) 4(35) 1(36) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 9(20) 2(22) X(22) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 6( 7) 12(19) 8(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN SALVADOR 34 4 43(47) 16(63) 6(69) 3(72) 1(73) X(73) SAN SALVADOR 50 X 8( 8) 9(17) 6(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 21 3(24) 2(26) 3(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) GRAND TURK 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-24 04:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Aug 23 the center of FOUR was located near 22.3, -72.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 2
2014-08-24 04:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 240241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 1100 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 72.6W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NNE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM ESE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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