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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 52
2014-08-25 22:36:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 252036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Advisory Number 52
2014-08-25 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 252035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 2100 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 127.6W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.0N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.3N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 127.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Depression KARINA Graphics
2014-08-25 16:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:37:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 25 Aug 2014 14:35:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression KARINA Forecast Discussion Number 51
2014-08-25 16:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 251435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 800 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 The upper-level outflow from Hurricane Marie is strongly shearing Karina, as only a small puff of deep convection remains in the southwestern quadrant of the cyclone. Dvorak current intensity numbers continue to drop, and a blend of the values from the ADT, SAB, and TAFB indicate that Karina has weakened to a 30-kt tropical depression. Despite the system heading toward warmer waters, hostile vertical shear should cause Karina to become a remnant low in about 12 hours. Thereafter, Karina's remnant low should become absorbed within the circulation of the much larger Marie in about two days. The intensity forecast is based upon a blend of the HWRF, LGEM, and SHIPS models and is the same as that from the previous advisory. With Karina's very limited deep convection, finding the center this morning is quite easy in the shortwave infrared imagery. Karina is moving toward the east-southeast at 8 kt. The cyclone will be advected around the large circulation of Marie until absorption of Karina occurs. The track forecast - based upon a blend of the TVCE multi-model consensus and the previous advisory - is just south of the previous official prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 17.1N 128.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.8N 127.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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Tropical Depression KARINA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 51
2014-08-25 16:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 251435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 51 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014 1500 UTC MON AUG 25 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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