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Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Advisory Number 2
2014-08-24 04:39:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 000 WTNT24 KNHC 240238 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 0300 UTC SUN AUG 24 2014 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA ON SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 72.6W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 72.6W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 72.4W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.1N 73.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.9N 74.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 74.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 24.8N 74.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 29.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 32.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 72.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2014-08-24 01:36:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 23:36:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 21:06:49 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression FOUR (AT4/AL042014)
2014-08-24 01:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION JUST NORTHWEST OF OF PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.... As of 8:00 PM AST Sat Aug 23 the center of FOUR was located near 22.0, -72.4 with movement NW at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression FOUR Public Advisory Number 1A
2014-08-24 01:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTNT34 KNHC 232333 TCPAT4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014 800 PM AST SAT AUG 23 2014 ...DEPRESSION JUST NORTHWEST OF OF PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.0N 72.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH...18 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REPORTS FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY SUNDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIRCRAFT DATA AND SURFACE DATA FROM PROVIDENCIALES IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA... WHERE THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression FOUR Graphics
2014-08-23 23:13:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 20:42:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 23 Aug 2014 21:06:49 GMT
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