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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 13:40:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 11:40:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 09:07:28 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Depression MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-18 13:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of MANUEL was located near 23.2, -107.8 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Public Advisory Number 15A
2013-09-18 13:39:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181139 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 500 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 ...MANUEL SLOWS DOWN AS IT GETS BETTER ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 107.8W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF MAZATLAN MEXICO ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO ALTATA * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.8 WEST. MANUEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...5 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO TODAY...AND APPROACH THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF SINALOA AND NAYARIT. MANUEL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE THURSDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-18 11:14:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 08:37:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2013 09:07:28 GMT
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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-09-18 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180838 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN MANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN THE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT DAYS 3 AND 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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