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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 16

2020-10-09 16:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 091432 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 106.1W AT 09/1500Z AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 106.0W FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 13.6N 106.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.1N 107.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.6N 107.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 14.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.9N 108.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N 106.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

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Tropical Depression Norbert Graphics

2020-10-09 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 08:39:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 09 Oct 2020 09:31:47 GMT

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Tropical Depression Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 15

2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 089 WTPZ44 KNHC 090838 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Norbert Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192020 300 AM MDT Fri Oct 09 2020 Norbert is clearly struggling to remain a tropical depression. The low-level center is exposed in recent satellite imagery, likely due to a combination of east-southeasterly vertical wind shear and dry mid-level air in the surrounding environment. The nearest deep convection is located roughly 50 miles south of the center, and it is very poorly organized. Unfortunately, overnight ASCAT passes missed the center of Norbert, but a partial overpass of the eastern semicircle revealed 20 kt winds. A blend of the UW-CIMSS objective estimate and the TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate supports an intensity of 25 kt, which may be generous given the lack of sustained convection near the cyclone's center. Vertical wind shear is taking its toll on Norbert, and the latest SHIPS guidance suggests the deep-layer shear will increase over the next 24-48 h. Thus, Norbert is unlikely to survive the five-day forecast period. If new convection doesn't develop soon, it could degenerate into a remnant low as early as today. The latest NHC forecast explicitly calls for dissipation by 72 h. Norbert is starting to drift northwestward, and this general motion should continue over the next couple of days as a weak mid-level ridge builds to the northeast of the depression. The NHC track forecast closely follows the consensus aids and remains very close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 13.2N 106.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 13.4N 106.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 13.9N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.4N 107.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 11/1800Z 14.9N 107.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky

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Tropical Depression Norbert Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2020-10-09 10:38:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 040 FOPZ14 KNHC 090838 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192020 0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/ZELINSKY

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Summary for Tropical Depression Norbert (EP4/EP192020)

2020-10-09 10:38:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...WEAKLY NORBERT STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 the center of Norbert was located near 13.2, -106.0 with movement NW at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.

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