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Tropical Depression Marco Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2020-08-25 04:31:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 250231 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BURAS LA 34 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Depression Marco Forecast Advisory Number 20
2020-08-25 04:30:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 000 WTNT24 KNHC 250230 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARCO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 0300 UTC TUE AUG 25 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.8W AT 25/0300Z AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 89.3W FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 29.0N 91.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.0N 93.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 89.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-22 01:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.3, -84.7 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 6A
2020-08-22 01:54:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 212354 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 800 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 84.7W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the system will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later tonight or early Saturday. The system could be near hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Additional strengthening is forecast Sunday and Monday as the system moves over the central Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Hurricane Hunter plane is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon and will spread northward and westward within the warning area Saturday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area by late Saturday. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-22 01:54:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 23:54:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 21:31:52 GMT
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