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Tropical Depression Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-08-21 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 212041 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142020 2100 UTC FRI AUG 21 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 2(21) 1(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 31(32) 6(38) 1(39) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 17(45) 3(48) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 8(17) 1(18) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 4(18) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 15(27) 4(31) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 6(21) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 5(22) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 18(29) 7(36) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 9(26) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 7(26) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 20(34) 5(39) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 6(26) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 7(30) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 8(27) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13) CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) 3(24) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) COZUMEL MX 34 X 20(20) 32(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 15(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Tropical Depression Fourteen (AT4/AL142020)
2020-08-21 19:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM THE HONDURAS COAST... As of 2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 the center of Fourteen was located near 17.4, -84.1 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-08-21 19:37:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 211737 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 200 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVING AWAY FROM THE HONDURAS COAST... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 84.1W ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ENE OF ISLA ROATAN HONDURAS ABOUT 280 MI...455 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bay Islands of Honduras * Punta Herrero to Cancun Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North and west of Cancun to Dzilam Mexico A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 84.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected over the next couple of days, followed by an increase in speed by Sunday and Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the coast of Honduras today and will approach the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico on Saturday. The center will then cross the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and move over the central Gulf of Mexico toward the northwestern Gulf on Sunday and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The system is forecast to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. Some weakening is expected as it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night. Afterward, restrengthening is forecast on Sunday as it moves offshore and enters the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the eastern Yucatan coast within the warning area by Saturday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the watch area by late Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area on the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday night and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are still possible over the Bay Islands of Honduras today. RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Sunday: Eastern portions of the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan: 3 to 6 inches, isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding. Eastern Honduras: 2 to 4 inches. Northeast Nicaragua and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 2 inches NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-21 19:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 17:37:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 15:31:52 GMT
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Graphics
2020-08-21 16:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:57 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:57:58 GMT
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